The number markets had been watching all morning landed exactly where expected — 2.4% on headline, 2.5% on core. No surprise. No shock. And yet the Dow still fell 475 points. February data was collected before the war. The oil shock, the shipping disruption, the insurance crisis — none of it shows up yet. The real inflation test arrives in the March and April prints.
While every major index closed lower, Oracle shrugged off the broader selloff and posted its biggest single-session gain since 2021. AI customers either prepay for GPU equipment or supply the GPUs themselves — meaning Oracle's $553B contract backlog requires no additional financing beyond the $50B already raised. Analysts called it a "structural re-rating" for an enterprise software giant that has quietly become America's AI infrastructure backbone.
January winter storms cut quarterly net sales by ~1% and shaved ~$0.04 from EPS. But the guidance cut signals structural weakness beyond weather. Campbell's revised EBIT down 17–20% for the full year — a stark admission that the post-pandemic consumer packaged goods boom is fully reversed.
Certainly we are not seeking a ceasefire.— Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iranian Parliament Speaker, March 11, 2026
The aggressor must be punished.
The Pentagon carried out its heaviest strikes of the campaign on Day 12, targeting remaining ballistic missile storage sites. Iran's missile launch tempo has collapsed from 480 per day to approximately 40 — but Tehran shows no interest in negotiation. Markets are learning to price a war with no timeline and no off-ramp.
NBC News — Iran's foreign minister rejects ceasefire calls: "We need to continue fighting"The 10-year held below 4.25% — a line that, if crossed, would reprice equities sharply. With CPI in-line, June cut odds remain elevated at 83%. But Powell's final FOMC presser on March 18 — not the decision itself — is the key: how does he frame a war-era economy where inflation data is already stale the day it's released?
Gold closed higher as the dollar index retreated and Treasury yields came off their intraday highs. Safe-haven demand from the Iran conflict provides a structural floor. Central banks remain net buyers at scale — China's PBOC extended its record streak to 16 consecutive months of purchases in February. The metal is not correlated to equity sentiment right now; it's correlated to fear.
HDFC Sky — Gold, Silver rebound as dollar eases; crude oil slides 11%Bitcoin held the $69,000 level despite equity weakness — a sign of institutional conviction via spot ETF flows. AI tokens outperformed: Internet Computer (ICP) +8% on an Upbit listing, FET +6% on Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang commentary. The dollar's retreat provides structural support, as does the $55B in cumulative ETF demand.
A VIX at 25 says: markets are nervous, not panicking. The option market is pricing roughly 1.6% daily S&P moves over the next 30 days. That's war-premium territory — elevated, persistent, grinding. Not the shock spike of a crash, but the steady anxiety of an unresolved conflict with no timeline.
Markets will watch for any war-related labor disruption signal. 213K last week. Consensus near 215K.
Upstream inflation. Like CPI, pre-war data. Will not yet reflect the Hormuz energy shock. Expected 2.6% YoY.
Pentagon promised "most intense strikes yet" for continued operations. Iran ceasefire remains off the table.
Implementation of the 400M barrel release begins. Watch whether physical barrels reach tankers — or whether the Hormuz blockage persists.
Markets will continue pricing the March 18 Powell presser. The dot plot will signal whether the Fed sees 1 or 2 cuts in 2026 amid the war.