The first inflation reading since Operation Epic Fury began.
February data was collected before the war — the oil shock won't show up here yet.
What it will show: whether disinflation survived the tariff era.
The oil crash — WTI from $119 to $82 in 48 hours — gave airline stocks a sudden gift. Lufthansa gained 7.8%, Air France +5.1%. The bounce is real but fragile. Korea's defense exporters — Hanwha Aerospace, Korean Air — rallied as the war reshapes global weapons procurement.
Yonhap — Korean won eases amid oil volatility, KOSPI open gains 2.28%Certainly we are not seeking a ceasefire.— Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, Iranian Parliament Speaker, March 11, 2026
The aggressor must be punished.
The Pentagon has promised "the most intense strikes yet" for today. Trump says the war will end "pretty quickly" — Iran's foreign minister says they will "continue fighting for the sake of our people." The White House demand: unconditional surrender, full ballistic missile disarmament, no end date set.
NBC News — Iran's foreign minister rejects ceasefire calls: "We need to continue fighting"Both organic revenue and EPS growth exceeded 20% simultaneously — the first time Oracle has achieved this in over a decade and a half. AI infrastructure demand outstrips supply. The $553B contract backlog, up 325% year-over-year, is being funded upfront by customers — Oracle says it will not need additional financing beyond the $50B raised in February.
Gold is the war's structural winner. Safe-haven stampede plus a retreating dollar pushed the metal past $5,200. Central banks remain net buyers — China has added to reserves for 16 consecutive months. A hot CPI print at 8:30 could briefly compress gold as yields spike, but geopolitical demand provides a floor the Fed cannot easily remove.
Analysts expect headline CPI at 2.4–2.5% YoY, core at 2.5%. February data was collected before the Iran conflict — the $46/barrel oil surge will not appear here. What markets are really testing: did tariff pressures push core goods higher before the war began?
March is locked. The CPI print today will reset June cut expectations. Powell's post-FOMC presser on March 18 — not the decision itself — will be the key communication moment: how does the Fed frame a war-era inflation reading that doesn't yet show the oil shock?
The Strait's mines are still in the water. IEA reserves can backstop supply on paper — they cannot reopen a mined waterway. The war premium isn't gone. It's been deferred.
The U.S. labor market is in a "low-hire, low-fire" state — layoffs remain historically low but hiring has stalled. The unemployment rate holds at 4.3%. The war's economic impact on labor will not appear in this data for another 4–6 weeks.
Dollar weakness — the DXY retreating from a 15-week high — provides structural support. The $55B in cumulative spot ETF inflows creates a persistent institutional bid beneath the volatility the war introduced.
Yields fell overnight alongside the dollar as oil retreated. But the 10-year is sitting at a point where a single CPI digit above 2.7% sends it past 4.4% — repricing equities within minutes of 8:30. The bond market is quiet right now. That quiet is the tension.
MarketScreener — Gold rises as dollar and Treasury yields fall ahead of U.S. data