A war 11 days old. Oil cratered 12% in a single session. The Dow swung nearly 1,200 points. And yet — when the smoke cleared — markets ended almost exactly where they began.
"The war is very complete, pretty much. It could end very soon." — President Donald Trump, CBS News
"Tuesday will be the most intense day of strikes inside Iran. More fighters, more bombers, more refined intelligence." — Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth
Eleven days since the US-Israel campaign against Iran began. 5,000+ targets struck. 50+ Iranian vessels sunk. Khamenei killed. And tonight — both sides claim the upper hand.
Boston Globe — Hegseth says Tuesday will be "most intense day of strikes"Oracle's Q3 results defy a war-rattled market. Cloud infrastructure revenue grew an astonishing 84% year-over-year — accelerating from 68% growth last quarter. The company's backlog of AI contracts has swelled to a staggering $553 billion in remaining performance obligations, up 325% from a year ago.
Motley Fool — Oracle stock rips higher in after-hours tradingFebruary CPI is the first inflation reading after the war began February 28th. The data was captured before the worst of the oil shock — meaning March's reading could be far more alarming. Tomorrow's expected print: 2.5% annual, 0.27% monthly. A beat could spike Treasury yields and reprice Fed policy expectations entirely.
Goldman Sachs and Barclays warn that sustained $100+ oil could push US inflation toward 3%.
Bitcoin climbed back above $70,000 as Trump's war-end signals weakened the US Dollar Index to 98.5. Spot ETFs have absorbed over $568M in net inflows in the past week. Cumulative ETF inflows now exceed $55 billion — institutional demand remains the floor.
The 10-year Treasury yield closed at 4.109%, up from the war's low of 3.95% hit when investors first fled to safety. As Trump suggested the conflict might end soon, risk-on sentiment returned and bonds sold off — yields rising with equity markets.
Tomorrow's CPI could send 10Y yields sharply higher if inflation surprises to the upside. The 2Y/10Y spread remains slightly positive — the yield curve is no longer inverted.
Both of our goals are risks now.Mary Daly, San Francisco Fed President
Beneath the war headlines, a structural vulnerability has been building for years. The Shiller CAPE ratio — a 10-year smoothed earnings multiple — has reached 39.8. The last time it was higher? The peak of the dot-com bubble. Meanwhile, the Magnificent Seven tech stocks now represent 40% of S&P 500 weight, a concentration of market cap not seen in modern history.
Intellectia AI — Beneath the war rally, a concentration risk warning